№ 75: The Lindy Effect
How I find clear signals in a misinforming & disinforming noisy world; To see the future, look back in time
This is Lindy’s Restaurant.
It first opened in 1921, and for almost 100 years, Lindy’s was a deli in New York City that became renowned for its cheesecake.
However, cheesecake and NYC restaurants are not what I want to talk to you about today.
Instead, what I want to tell you about is the ‘Lindy Effect’ and how it’s come to shape my perspective.
But for me to get there, I need to continue with Lindy’s Restaurant.
You see, back in the 1960s, local NYC comedians used to gather every night at Lindy’s to review the recent show business action and speculate on how long each other’s careers would last.
The group of comedians developed a theory:
“... the life expectancy of a television comedian is [inversely] proportional to the total amount of his exposure on the medium. If, pathetically deluded by hubris, he undertakes a regular weekly or even monthly program, his chances of survival beyond the first season are slight; but if he adopts the conservation of resources policy favored by these senescent philosophers of "the Business," and confines himself to "specials" and "guest shots," he may last to the age of Ed Wynn [d. age 79 in 1966 while still acting in movies]”
In other words, comedians have a fixed amount of comedic material, which they can either use up in specials and shows or sparingly to make their careers last a lifetime.
One of the comedians, Albert Gouldman, called it ‘Lindy’s Law’ and went as far as writing an article about the law in The New Republic magazine.
However, in 1982, along came a mathematician named Benoit Mandelbrot, who came to the opposite conclusion as Gouldman.
In his book The Fractal Geometry of Nature, under the same Lindy Law name, Mandelbrot stated that the longevity of a comedian’s career in fact increased the more shows the comedian had done in the past.
“However long a person's past collected works, it will on the average continue for an equal additional amount. When it eventually stops, it breaks off at precisely half of its promise.” — Benoit Mandelbrot
Some ideas and technologies become less perishable as time goes on.
This became known as the Lindy Effect: The longer something has existed, the longer it will continue to exist.
The Lindy Effect only works on non-perishable ideas, and it makes almost perfect sense as to why things continue to stick around.
Let’s take books, for example. A book that has been in print for 100 years will still be in print 100 years from now.
However, most of the books that have come out this year in 2023, even the best sellers, will not.
Here are some more examples of the Lindy Effect in play
The best way to eat your food is to sit around a table with friends and family, telling stories and cracking jokes.
The best way to cook your food is with fire and not with a microwave.
The best way to learn and retain information is with pen and paper and not with a keyboard.
I like the Lindy effect because it helps me find the signal in a noisy, misinforming and disinforming world.
Jeff Bezos puts it nicely:
“I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's NOT going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.”
This reminds me a lot about marketing.
Marketers have become obsessed with what’s trending and fashionable.
A few years ago it was NFTs, Web 3.0, AR, VR and Sustainability. Today it’s ChatGPT and AI.
I understand the hype. As someone who runs a marketing & advertising agency and is currently experimenting with how AI sits in our workflow, it’s exciting and unchartered territory, where there are unknowns. It’s a creative’s wet dream.
However, I’m reluctant to use AI in client’s briefs. I know a lot of it is just noise. As a strategist, it’s my job to build my client’s brand, so I’m not going to technology for the sake of technology-ing.
So when I approach marketing strategy using the Lindy Effect, I think about what’s NOT going to change: Human nature.
“It took millions of years for man’s instincts to develop. It will take millions more for them to even vary. It is fashionable to talk about changing man. A communicator must be concerned with unchanging man, with his obsessive drive to survive, to be admired, to succeed, to love, to take care of his own.” — Bill Bernbach
The Lindy Effect helps me filter our information that is robust — what matters over long periods of time — from what doesn’t matter. Time reveals all.
For me to predict the future, I’m in essence, looking for knowledge that will still be relevant and applicable 10, 20, and 50 years from now.
I do this by looking for knowledge that has been around for a long time; it means it’s still important in some way, and those are the kinds of information worth knowing.
The Lindy Effect also influences the content I consume.
I avoid daily news. If something is important and newsworthy, it’ll find its way to me somehow. The news cycle is 24 hours. Its purpose is to keep your eyeballs glued to the headlines. Because of this, it becomes impossible to filter the signal from the noise if you’re always consuming the news.
When it comes to books, I tend to read books that are older than 100 years old. These are the ideas of the best thinkers, and if what was true for them then still holds true today, it will continue to hold true in the future.